摘要
本研究基于气象数据，综合利用热点分析、M-K突变检验等地理学和统计学方法，模拟了1995-2024年期间京津冀城市群极端气候的时空演变特征。结果表明：在时间上，极端高温与降雨天数显著增加，且极端降雨在2010年后发生突变，复杂性增强；极端低温与干旱则呈波动变化。在空间上，气候风险呈现南北分异：北部是极端低温与降雨的敏感区，南部则更易遭受极端高温与干旱侵袭。这些变化是全球变暖大背景与京津冀城市群快速城市化共同作用的结果，凸显了该区域面临的气候风险正持续加剧，本研究为制定差异化的城市气候适应策略提供了科学依据。
关键词： 京津冀城市群；极端气候；时空变化
Abstract
This study utilizes meteorological data and integrates geographical and statistical methods such as hotspot analysis and the M-K mutation test to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme climate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 1995 to 2024. The results indicate that: temporally, extreme high temperatures and rainy days have significantly increased, with extreme rainfall exhibiting a mutation after 2010 and enhanced complexity, while extreme low temperatures and droughts show fluctuating patterns. Spatially, climate risks exhibit a north-south divergence: the northern region is a sensitive area for extreme low temperatures and rainfall, whereas the southern region is more vulnerable to extreme high temperatures and droughts. These changes result from the combined effects of global warming and rapid urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, highlighting the escalating climate risks faced by the area. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating differentiated urban climate adaptation strategies.
Key words： Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration; Extreme climate; Spatiotemporal variation
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